Cinema this fall looks sicker and healthier than ever | Movies

In theory, everyone in Hollywood and everyone in the movie industry should be on top of the world. So why aren’t they? Why does the industry end the summer in a nervous and neurotic state? Is Hollywood really on the verge of collapse?

There was, after all, every reason to look forward to this year’s fall awards season in high spirits. The #Barbenheimer phenomenon was a box office success beyond distributors’ wildest dreams. What started as a speculative hashtag joke has generated real returns for two very different films: a fantasy comedy about a doll and a searing epic about the father of the atomic bomb. And even the online debates associated with it – is Barbie just a glorified advertisement? Does Oppenheimer neglect the Japanese perspective? – boosted engagement with cinema. Movies have become big again and people have been brought back to the cinemas in greater numbers since the pandemic. It also goes to show that original auteur director films can deliver numbers that match and even exceed any franchise.

And yet and yet. Studios and producers overlooked the very people who worked to create this new push, and struggled for years before that. The resulting WGA writers’ strike in May in favor of larger residues had serious implications for television shows and film projects in development. Now Sag-Aftra (the Screen Actors Guild – American Federation of Television and Radio Artists) has also gone on strike, due to concerns about residuals and AI – a scenario that Variety magazine has described as “Armageddon”.

Now there are ominous signs that studios may simply pull all of their big-ticket theatrical releases from the fall schedule until the new year after the (presumed) strike settlement, a sickening echo of the interminable delays. of the pandemic in the Bond blockbuster No Time to Die. UK Equity actors can’t strike in the same way, but the union’s leadership has sworn transatlantic solidarity, bolstered by a rousing speech in London from Brian Cox. British actors tempted to step in to hit American players will be seen as disloyal: although the phones of British agents may buzz with big offers.

Now the mood darkens with the odd signs of posturing as studios play a game of chicken with their striking workforce and each other. Warner Bros Discovery CEO David Zaslav surprised the film world and the industry press with his somewhat jubilant announcement that the strike has so far saved the company an estimated $100 million. (£78.5 million). Could it be that the corporate masters of Hollywood don’t care too much about non-production because it sweetens the bottom line? Zaslav is after all the same guy who pulled the plug on the $90 million Batgirl movie as a tax deduction.

Well, maybe. But almost in the same breath, Zaslav said he expected the strike to end in September. It could be a bargaining tactic, bravado, saying to his mutinous staff: we respect you, we want to settle this, of course, but on the other hand, we are in a strong and cash-rich position, and you put there. And it also sends an ambiguous message to its competitors: the message being that removing films from the awards is by no means inevitable and by September that will all be history.

In this game of chicken, each studio will wonder if their opponent will blink and pull their award-winning film from theaters first, giving them a freer field and a greater chance of Oscar glory – even if the strike means the promoting their films has become very difficult. Everything indicates that the studios will want to settle this strike quickly, nervously obsessed, as they always are, with a succession of big immediate returns on the first weekend on the novelties.

And there’s another factor that means it’s not all doom and gloom – the extremely healthy market for existing world cinema films outside of Hollywood, including full-length British films. Exhibitors in Britain are reporting a craze for demanding, auteur-directed films of all types – not just #Barbenheimer.