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A Russian spacecraft malfunctioned over the weekend, sending the vehicle crashing into the moon. The failed landing attempt has experts wondering about the future of the country’s lunar exploration ambitions and the geopolitical dynamics that underpin modern space exploration efforts.
The spacecraft, Luna 25, lost contact with operators from the Russian space agency, Roscosmos, on Saturday August 19. On Sunday, the vehicle was declared dead.
Initial reports from Roscosmos chief Yury Borisov say there was a problem with the vehicle’s engines, causing it to misfire as it tried to adjust its orbit in the days before landing.
The failure was a blow to the space agency’s ambitions. Russia was seeking to prove that its civilian space program, which analysts say has struggled for decades, can still achieve the staggering feats it showcased in the 20th century space race.
“Russia’s Cold War legacy will be just that – a legacy – unless they can actually do it themselves,” said Victoria Samson, director of the Washington office of the Secure World Foundation, an organization nonprofit that promotes the peaceful exploration of outer space.
Under the former Soviet Union, Russia successfully landed seven spacecraft safely on the lunar surface, including the first-ever soft landing in 1966.
Borisov acknowledged that the Soviet successes of the last century were not easily replicated.
“We basically have to master all the technologies again – of course, at a new technical level,” he said in an interview with Russian state media on Monday.
Borisov assured that Roscosmos could get back on track. He said the space agency would speed up its next two lunar missions: Luna 26 and Luna 27, which could give Roscosmos all the science it lost with the failure of Luna 25.
Yet space policy experts question whether the Russian government has the power or the will to make it happen, especially as the country faces sanctions over the war in Ukraine and Roscosmos appears to be of diminishing importance. for the Kremlin.
“Even though they said they were going to continue (the Luna program), that doesn’t necessarily mean anything at this point. And the question is: Can they continue? Do they have the capacity to continue? said Robert Pearson, former ambassador to Turkey, former director general of the US Foreign Service and founding member of Duke University’s Space Diplomacy Lab.
The consequence of this failure, Pearson added, is that on the world stage it raises the question of whether Russia is “seriously in the space race.”
A changing civilian spatial landscape
Russia’s failed moon landing attempt comes amid a rush of other lunar exploration efforts, largely engineered by countries that haven’t been considered traditional space powers. Luna 25 flew alongside India’s Chandrayaan-3 spacecraft, which will attempt to land on the moon on Wednesday.
More than a dozen other countries also have plans for lunar missions in the coming years, including the United States’ ambitious Artemis III, which could land astronauts on the lunar surface as early as 2025.
“I think that…shows how much the cost of space exploration has come down,” Samson said. “It’s still not cheap by any stretch of the imagination, but it’s gotten a little more reasonable. … I think that’s why more countries are able to (attempt) this.
But while the loss of Luna 25 can largely be seen as a setback to Russia’s space ambitions, it should be noted that putting a spacecraft on the moon remains an extremely difficult feat.
India’s latest attempt, with the Chandrayaan-2 spacecraft, failed. And two other commercial spacecraft have also crashed since 2019.
Perhaps different expectations were placed on Russia, however, due to its extensive Soviet-era experience.
If India’s space agency manages to land its spacecraft safely, Pearson added, it could “really underscore Russia’s loss of prestige, influence and technological capability.”
The mission was also closely watched due to developments in the country’s civilian space program. In recent years, Roscosmos has been beleaguered by funding issues, quality control issues and suspicions of corruption, Samson noted.
The space agency has also had to deal with backlash from Western countries since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. The European Space Agency, for example, was to work with Roscosmos on the Luna 25 mission as well as on several future exploration projects, but Europe withdrew from the partnership after the invasion of Ukraine.
Now questions are swirling about how Russia’s closest modern space partner – China – might react to the failure of Luna 25.
The two countries had announced that they would work together to establish the International Lunar Research Station, a lunar base to rival plans by the United States and its allies to create a permanent lunar outpost under the Artemis program of The NASA.
Samson noted that China, which is so far the only country to have landed spacecraft on the moon in the 21st century, has already downplayed Russia’s role in the program.
“I’m sure China must be really wondering what they got themselves into” after the Luna 25 mission, Samson said.
Still, both Samson and Pearson noted that Russia continues to play a key role on the international stage. The country is the main partner of the United States on the International Space Station, although Russia has previously threatened to withdraw from this operation. For years, Russia was also the only country able to get astronauts to and from the space station after NASA retired its space shuttle program. (Today, SpaceX has taken over this function for the United States.)
The Luna 25 spacecraft was intended to land on the moon’s south pole. This is the same region where India aims to place its Chandrayaan-3 lander and where NASA plans to place its astronauts as well as future robotic missions.
The widespread interest in the moon’s south pole can be attributed to one key feature: water ice. Scientists believe large amounts of water are stored near the South Pole, frozen in dark craters.
Water ice could be extremely valuable for future space exploration. The precious resource could be converted into rocket fuel for missions that explore the cosmos deeper or turned into drinking water for astronauts on long-duration missions.
“It’s really the big engine that we need to head for the South Pole – and they’re kind of part of a ‘space race, part two,'” said Dr Angela Marusiak, professor of science. adjunct research at the University of Arizona Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, in an Aug. 18 interview.
Because orbital dynamics make the South Pole difficult to reach, it has not been explored as deeply as other regions. This gives Russia and all other nations with lunar ambitions a key reason to go: there is a clear scientific and strategic interest.
But Pearson wondered why Russia chose to head straight for the South Pole for its first lunar mission in nearly 50 years.
“All they had to do was land (somewhere on the moon) and they would have shown the world that they were in the space race,” Pearson said of Russia. “They took a desperate step – in my opinion – when they should have chosen a safer option.”
Which countries reach the moon, and when, could have implications for how scientists use the data collected.
Exactly how information sharing works is not entirely clear.
India, for example, is a signatory to NASA’s Artemis Accords, a document setting out agreed rules for lunar exploration that includes a commitment to share scientific data.
Russia, on the other hand, is not a signatory.
But Samson cautioned against characterizing these lunar missions as a race, suggesting those involved are naysayers. While it’s hard to know exactly what dynamics will occur, the moon is a big place – and there’s room for everyone.
“My concern is that if we look at this aggressively and adversarially,” she said, “then we will generate the exact circumstance that we are trying to avoid.”
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